The Myth of Endless Growth

'We cannot grow forever on a finite planet. If we continue to assume that endless growth and consumption is possible, and disregard the biosphere’s capacity to meet our greed, and if we continue to neglect social justice and fair and sustainable wealth distribution, we will reap a bitter harvest.'

Forest protection: Local and global

VIEWPOINT Frederick Sagisolo

Local communities living in the world's dwindling tropical forests bear the brunt of the insatiable demand for cheap timber, argues Frederick Sagisolo. In the Green Room, he recounts his experience of illegal logging, and explains why community forest management is the way forward.
Forests provide for most of the needs of the KnasaimosFor the Knasaimos people, living in the Indonesian province of Papua, we do not see nature as something to be destroyed.
The forests here provide for our needs. For building houses we take rattan, bamboo and other woods, for lighting fires we take damar, and for food we process sago taken from the forest in the traditional method.
The forests give us wood for fishing boats, gaharu trees for trade, and many fruits which we can sell.
The relationship between our people and their nature is important, and it's become our pride and part of our traditional wisdom. That's why we manage the land in a simple way.
The way we manage our land, however, has been disturbed by outsiders coming here to log trees.

It started in 1999 with meranti wood being taken, and once that was finished in 2002 they started to cut merbau trees.
This created problems for our community. Before, there was a sense of working together, a feeling of togetherness.
Then, when some people are attracted to the wood company they refuse to work on the sago any more. They think that because the company promises money, they don't want to do the traditional work in the forest any more.
New values appear, like wanting to have more than your neighbour and putting a price on everything, instead of valuing what we already have.
Rich wood
The merbau logging was carried out by one company, supported by foreign investors.

Companies from outside only think about money and leave us with tears
We never invited this company here and it did not have proper permission to log.
I am the head of the tribal council, but the company never talked to me. Instead it did an illegal deal with one individual from our community, and this created many problems for us.
But the company was backed by a local military officer, so what could we do?
Soon after it first arrived the company was cutting our trees in four areas, destroying the land with heavy equipment. Yet when people here see the military person involved, then cannot sit down together and discuss things. Impossible.
I was really worried by this company. Our land is not that large, and with the logging after a few years we would have had no trees left, only grass.
This would mean disaster for us. It is our mission to treat the land as something entrusted to us for our grandchildren and so we must not destroy it.
Self-determination
If we are left alone we manage the forest well as it is part of our life.
But companies from outside only think about money and leave us with tears. While the company was here there was no improvement for local people - just problems.
We plan to develop a system where we, the Knasaimos, as the guardians of this land, manage it ourselves and gain benefits to help the lives of our people
We know our rights, but got no help from the local government. They just came here with a map we had never seen before - some kind of imaginary map.
Under this some of our sacred places would be destroyed. We asked "why did you do this?" and the company said it was allowed because of the map.
We know that this map was illegal and it is clear that money talked. We asked the government to stop this company, but nothing happened.
Then finally, in 2005, Papua was the target for a big action by the government against illegal logging. The military officer left, and the company operations stopped.
We felt we were once more in control of our lands and set about healing the wounds created by the company.
Community awareness
In early 2007 I was contacted by people from two environment groups, Telapak and the Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA).

Frederick shares his community's story with officials in Brussels
These groups had come to Seremuk in 2003 and filmed our way of life and the problems we were having with the logging company.
These people explained to me that they were organising a meeting in Belgium to tell European Union officials about the bad impacts of illegal logging and wanted me to speak. I agreed, believing this could benefit our community.
I came across so many interesting stories on the trip.
I found out how timber stolen from Seremuk and other "remote" areas eventually goes to places like Europe and is worth a lot of money. It seemed strange to me that the people who live in the forests are still poor, while the timber taken from them is worth so much when it is sold in Europe.
On the trip, I saw how in Europe NGOs work together with their governments, while in Indonesia they are seen as the enemy of the government.
This made us realise how the Knasaimos people have to develop strong institutions to press the government to have a more open mind, and allow us to manage our land free of interference.

Frederick's story
(Courtesy of Handcrafted Films and the UK's Department for International Development)
Now, in Seremuk, I'm working to use the lessons of the trip to help improve the situation for the Knasaimos.
At a recent big gathering of our people it was agreed that no member of our community would sell trees to outsiders.
Instead we plan to develop a system where we, the Knasaimos, as the guardians of this land, manage it ourselves and gain benefits to help the lives of our people through better education and health.
We have suffered from illegal logging and now we want to build a co-operative to carry out small-scale community logging.
This is our vision as to how we can live together with nature and improve the lives of our people.
Frederick Sagisolo is traditional chief of the Knasaimos people living in the western region of Papua, Indonesia
The Green Room is a series of opinion articles on environmental topics running weekly on the BBC News website
Do you agree with Frederick Sagisolo? Is community involvement the key to managing natural resources such as forests? Do western governments and western consumers have a role to play in helping peoples such as the Knasaimos?

Marele artist al mediei calafetene, Daniel Girtoi

mai copile, daca cu numai citeva ore in urma luai apararea directorulu de la Termo, iata ca ceea ce primarul si cei pe care ar trebui sa-i respecti tu si gasca ta de ignoranti, au prezis s-a adevarat. Incompetenta si minciuna iese la suprafata cum a iesit acum din rezervorul cu pricina pacura care n-a vrut sa fie arsa. N-a vrut sa fie arsi banii cetateanului care nu are nici un amestec in jocurile voastre politice. Daca tu crezi ca furnizarea energiei unui oras intreg este lasata an de an in voia sortii, la cheremul celor ce stiu sa linga mai mult usile guvernatilor atunci poti sa te duci sa scrii articole in Nigeria, pe noi scuteste-ne de istetimea ta. Politia si pompierii au ajuns foarte repede ???!! Pai cum ai fi vrut ma' lingaule sa ajunga? Nu crezi ca era de datoria lor? De ce nu scrii de echipa de interventie, de planurile de urgenta? Nu aveti din astea ca nu sint bani? Atunci cind a-ti pasit pe drumul luminos al civilizatiei occidentale nu v-ati gandit decit la distractii? Ei poate e timpul sa va treziti si sa vedeti ca odata cu "mall-ul" cu preturi accesibile vin si multe alte care inaintasii vostrii fie comunisti sau tarani sau doar simplu oameni le-au refuzat. Dar voi aveti tot timpul inainte! Sa curatati mizeria facuta de altii. Nu v-a picat fisa inca ???

Cost of water shortage: civil unrest, mass migration and economic collapse

Analysts see widespread conflicts by 2015 but pin hopes on technology and better management John Vidal, environment editor, Thursday August 17, 2006 The Guardian

A woman carries buckets to collect water near Tahoua, northen Niger. Photograph: Issouf Sanogo/AFP/Getty

Cholera may return to London, the mass migration of Africans could cause civil unrest in Europe and China's economy could crash by 2015 as the supply of fresh water becomes critical to the global economy. That was the bleak assessment yesterday by forecasters from some of the world's leading corporate users of fresh water, 200 of the largest food, oil, water and chemical companies.
Analysts working for Shell, Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Cargill and other companies which depend heavily on secure water supplies, yesterday suggested the next 20 years would be critical as countries became richer, making heavier demands on scarce water supplies.

In three future scenarios, the businesses foresee growing civil unrest, boom and bust economic cycles in Asia and mass migrations to Europe. But they also say scarcity will encourage the development of new water-saving technologies and better management of water by business.
The study of future water availability, which the corporations have taken three years to compile, suggests water conflicts are likely to become common in many countries, according to the World Business Council on Sustainable Development, which brought the industrial groups together.
Lloyd Timberlake, spokesman for the council, said: "The growing demand for water in China can potentially lead to over-exploitation and a decline in availability for domestic, agricultural, industry and energy production use. This inevitably leads to loss of production, both industrial and agricultural, and can also affect public health - all of which in turn will ultimately lead to an economic downturn. The question is how can business address these challenges and still make a profit."
The corporations were yesterday joined by the conservation group WWF and the International Water Management Institute, the world's leading body on fresh water management, which said water scarcity was increasing faster than expected. In China, authorities had begun trucking in water to millions of people after wells and rivers ran dry in the east of the country.
"Globally, water usage has increased by six times in the past 100 years and will double again by 2050, driven mainly by irrigation and demands of agriculture. Some countries have already run out of water to produce their own food. Without improvements ... the consequences will be even more widespread water scarcity and rapidly increasing water prices," said Frank Rijsberman, director of the institute.
The institute, funded by government research organisations, will report next week that a third of the world's population, more than 2 billion people, is living in places where water is overused - leading to falling underground water levels and drying rivers - or cannot be accessed.
Mr Rijsberman said rising living standards in India and China could lead to increased demand for better food, which would in turn need more water to produce. He expected the price of water to increase everywhere to meet an expected 50% increase in the amount of food the world will need in the next 20 years.
According to the institute's assessment, Egypt imports more than half of its food because it does not have enough water to grow it domestically and Australia is faced with water scarcity in the Murray-Darling Basin as a result of diverting large quantities of water for use in agriculture. The Aral Sea in central Asia is another example of massive diversion of water for agriculture in the Soviet era causing widespread water scarcity, and one of the world's worst environmental disasters.
Researchers say it is possible to reduce water scarcity, feed people and address poverty, but the key trade-off is with the environment. "People and their governments will face some tough decisions on how to allocate and manage water," says the institute's report.
In a further paper, WWF said yesterday that water crises, long seen as a problem of only the poorest, are affecting the wealthiest nations. "In Europe, countries along the Atlantic are suffering recurring droughts, while water-intensive tourism and irrigated agriculture are endangering water resources in the Mediterranean. In Australia, salinity is a major threat to a large proportion of its key agricultural areas", said Jamie Pittock, director of WWF's freshwater programme.
In the United States, Mr Pittock said, large areas are already using substantially more water than can be naturally replenished. "This situation will only be exacerbated as climate change is predicted to bring lower rainfall, increased evaporation and changed patterns of snow melting."
Three visions of the future
1. Misery and shortages in the megacities and drought in Africa
By 2010, 22 megacities with populations larger than 10 million face major water and sewerage problems. The situation is gravest in China, where 550 of the country's 600 largest cities are running short. Growing demand for water by industry leads to serious over-exploitaion with less and less water available for consumers and farmers. This leads to a fall in Chinese food production, which in turn leads to more imports and impacts on other countries. Friction and unrest grow worldwide as the middle classes struggle to pay bills. Businesses are exposed to charges of moral culpability and litigation over water use. Waves of immigrants flood in to Europe from increasingly drought-torn Africa
2. China leads recycling rush as world moves to a new hydro economy
By 2010, the water shortage in many developing countries is recognised as one of the most serious political and social issues of the time. Lack of water is stopping development and in many countries the rural poor suffer as their water and other needs take second place to those of swelling cities and industry. Local government worldwide is increasingly distrusted over water allocation, and historical divides between rich and poor are exacerbated by water shortages. However, by 2025 a worldwide hydro economy is developing, led by China. Vast new investments are made in recycling water and the cost of desalination is greatly reduced. Innovative small-scale water treatment processes become the norm
3. Water is the means of social control as floods and disease devastate world
Water becomes a key symbol of protest around the world and is seen as the most serious social and political issue of the generation. By 2015, multinational companies are accused regularly of taking too much water in developing countries, cholera breaks out in London, and governments start to use water as a form of social control, subsidising some sectors and rationing it to others. Great floods follow each other in quick succession. Deforestation leads to massive mudslides in Asia and increasing flooding affects Europe, damaging industry. A second New Orleans flood destroys the city again. Global focus grows on the "export" of water via crops such as wheat or fruit

The Coming Economic Collapse

By Bruce Porteous Is there a coming economic collapse? When will this happen? How will this affect us? Many wonder what the future is for the global economy. Over the last few years economists have been expressing increasing concerns about the direction the global economy is going in, and the possibility of a worldwide depression. They have been warning about the growing global imbalances in the world economy, and the consequences if not corrected. Yet we live in a time where the global economy is booming, especially in the Anglo-Saxon and Asian economies. Consumer spending is up. House prices around the world have risen dramatically. Unemployment remains low. The global economy has experienced the longest period of sustained economic growth in recent history. The US$ continues to remain stable. Why has the global economy experienced such strong growth? Will this growth continue? What does the future hold? Interestingly, some of the stimulus for the growth the global economy has recently experienced is a result of decisions made following Sept 11th. Already, prior to Sept 11th the US Federal Reserve was maintaining a loose fiscal policy in an effort to stimulate economic growth in the US economy, which had slowed down following years of strong growth during the Clinton administration. Then along came Sept 11th, which threatened to destabilize the American banking system. To prevent this happening, the Fed injected billions into the banking system to provide sufficient liquidity to prevent a run on the dollar and the banks. Meanwhile, Japan since the late Eighties had been wrestling with a stagnant economy, deflation, and a rising currency. The Bank of Japan was already printing money prior to Sept 11th to support its own debt-ridden banks and to stimulate the domestic economy, and has continued with this policy ever since: printing yen to purchase American dollars. Japan has been able avoid inflation through having high domestic savings, and by investing heavily outside the country. This has kept the Yen from appreciating against the dollar, enabled Japan's export sector to remain competitive, and kept interest rates at near zero. As much of Japan's external investments have been in the USA, it has resulted in Japan holding assets worth trillions of US dollars, many of which are invested in US Treasury Bonds and Mutual Funds. Printing money to solve a nation's economic problem can never be sustained. Eventually, it will lead to the debasing of a nations currency and run-away inflation. Yet for a short period, it can create an artificial prosperity, deluding the masses into believing this new prosperity can be sustained. The long-term consequences of inflating their money supply will spell disaster for America and Japan, and have dire consequences for the global economy. The rapid increase in the money supply of US dollars is the number one reason America's wealth has shifted from the US to Asia and Europe. In particular, China has benefited enormously from the inflow of dollars which has financed the rapid growth of its economy, providing the capital to develop their competitive export sector. The Asian economies high rates of personal savings have financed their domestic growth as well as finance the US deficits. This has continued to allow the USA to maintain its privileged position of retaining the $US dollar as the world's reserve currency; and allowing it to retain its global military and political dominance. It has become popular by American politicians to blame China for the decline in America's production base. This is totally unfair, and shows both their ignorance and a failure to accept responsibility by the American leadership. Actually, it is through China being able to supply America with cheap consumer goods, and lend the capital to purchase these goods which has allowed the US to contain inflation, benefiting the American consumer. Germany, which is now the world's number one export nation and which has a wage structure higher than the US, has had to cope with a rising currency, but has still been able to expand its exports between 10-20% per annum, and continues to have an expanding large trade and current account surpluses. German manufactures also have to compete with their Asian competitors just as those from America, yet have a 160.5 billion trade surplus. The reason why America has such large trade and current deficits is because of the expansion of its money supply, without the corresponding expansion of its productive capacity to produce the wealth to sustain the increase in money in circulation. The lack of domestic savings to provide the investment capital into new manufacturing capacity is also a contributing factor. The cost of maintaining a large military establishment and the decline in the social fabric of society are also significant contributing factors, both of which consume resources that should be invested in the manufacturing sector for a nation to remain internationally competitive. So it would appear in the short-term, the loose monetary policies of America and Japan appear to have benefited everyone. Expanding the money supply has provided the capital to support the growth of the expanding Asian economies, especially those of India and China. Inflation (if you exclude property) has been contained (normally a consequences of a loose money policy) because of China and India being able to produce consumer goods and services cheaply for the global markets, preventing manufactures in the Anglo-Saxon economies from raising their prices. The increase in the supply of US dollars has been able to finance the growth in global trade. It has also provided the liquidity to finance the trade in oil, even as its price continues to escalate. But what are the long-term consequences of such fiscal policies? 1 The rise in property prices. The value of property is one of the first commodities to rise in value when the supply of money increases rapidly. In the short-term this makes property owners believe they have suddenly struck it rich, but in reality it is the decline in the value of their money. It also places an increased financial burden upon the population, who end up paying an increased percentage of their income on housing, unless their incomes also rise. The burden of servicing this new mortgage debt is riskier today, as much of the capital to finance the growth in mortgage debt has come from short-term borrowings through the banking system from Asian investors, with the interest being remitted back to these lenders, rather than retained in the local economy. The real danger is that if the Asian investors withdraw their capital from the Anglo-Saxon nations, it would cause a collapse of the property sector and threaten the survival of their banking system. 2 The shift of the productive manufacturing base from the Anglo-Saxon nations to low-cost Asian economies. The outflow of printed dollars from the USA to Asia has provided the capital to allow these countries to rapidly expand their manufacturing sector, and under-cut the higher cost Anglo-Saxon producers. Yet the increase of the money supply has allowed the Anglo-Saxon consumer to still have retained their ability to purchase consumer goods manufactured from Asia, often financed through borrowing from the same Asians, even as their income from the productive sector declines. 3 The increase in the money supply has resulted in the rapid growth in consummation of non-renewable resources in newly emerging economies in both the Anglo-Saxon countries and especially China and India. This growth in demand for these essential commodities can not be sustained. Without the supply of cheap energy our standard of living will not be maintained. Eventually the availability of energy will become limited to only those nations with currencies strong enough to purchase them. 4 Damage to the global environment ­ the increase of the money supply has stimulated economic growth to where the planet can no longer cope with the damage done to the environment. For the sake of short-term prosperity, we are destroying the ability of the planet to sustain life. 5 It has enabled the American, Japanese and UK Governments to finance their enormous budget deficits though borrowing the money they have printed. In the case of America and Britain is that they are also borrowing increasingly from nations that were their former enemies. In all these countries the national debt has grown to such an extent, that a tightening of the money supply resulting in higher interest rates, could increase their budget deficits to such an extent it would bankrupt them. 6 Funding of wars ­ America has been able to finance its wars in the Middle East on borrowed money ­ printed money now controlled from Asia. This has left the American economy extremely vulnerable and open to collapse if this money is with-drawn for geo-political reasons. Amazingly, the US does not even include the war in Iraq or Afghanistan in its budget. 7 Increasing the money supply to the extent that has happened, will eventually lead to the erosion in the value of the purchasing power of the currency, and a lack of confidence in its value. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ But what of the long-term consequences for the world if there is a collapse of existing economic system? What will be the future to the global economy of the loose money policies of the last few years? Does economic disaster now loom over the horizon? What will trigger off a lack of confidence by America's creditors in continuing to invest in the USA and support the $US? There could be any-one of a number of factors that would lead to international confidence in the American economy and the US dollar such as: 1 Switch from accepting payment in oil from dollars to Euro by OPEC. 2 A major national disaster, such as an earthquake in Tokyo, a cyclone in America, a terrorist attack. 3 A military defeat in Iraq. 4 A further blow-out in the US twin deficits. 5 Rising interest rates in other parts of the world. 6 Lack of confidence in America's ability to service its debts. 7 Major economic calamities in the US, such as run on the banking system, fall in the share-market, or a collapse of major corporations. 8 A major disease epidemic, such as bird flu. The world has experienced some of the greatest shift of wealth in recent history, from the Anglo-Saxon nations who have dominated the global economy for the last 200 years, to Asia and Continental Europe. This shift in wealth will shortly result in the economic collapse of the Anglo-Saxon nations ­ their money will become worthless, and their economies will disintegrate into anarchy and poverty. This collapse will also have disastrous consequences to the Asian economies, which have become depended on exporting to the North American market to support their domestic growth. While the Asian economies will be severely affected from the collapse of the Anglo-Saxon economies, they will survive and recover. The region in the world which will fill the vacuum from the coming collapse of the $US will be the Eurozone. The Euro will replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency, propelling the Eurozone nations into the most influential global economic power. To support filling the monetary vacuum following the collapse of the dollar, Europeans will have to resolve their constitutional differences and form a political union. Those nations that accept the EU Constitution will form a United States of Europe, but it is unlikely that all existing EU members will agree to be a part of such a political union. The future for the Anglo-Saxon people looks bleak. The sudden withdrawal of overseas investment will see their economies go into free-fall. Their currencies will become worthless. Property prices will collapse. Businesses will fail. Disease will become wide-spread, made worse without the drugs to control that many that is now depended upon. Farmers without the money to purchase fuel and chemicals will no longer have the ability to mass produce food. Starvation and anarchy will prevail. There will be little governments can do to save their people from death and destruction. Meanwhile, America's over-stretched military will no longer have the financial resources to continue its futile Middle East wars, and to sustain its bases that circumnavigate the globe, will be forced to with-draw back to the USA. Few can comprehend of the fate that lies ahead for the Anglo-Saxon group of nations. It will be a time of human suffering greater than ever experienced. Two thirds will die ­ those who survive will be taken into slavery. After 200 years of global dominance, their defeat will result in some of the most dreadful suffering mankind has experienced. Yet all this could be avoided if they had not rejected the Law of God. It is only by returning to following God's Law and the teachings of Jesus Christ that this looming disaster can be avoided.

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